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Chase Update 11 AM

Todays chase target is quite difficult.  Two areas of interest, one being the upslope play in the panhandle of Nebraska and the other being along the warm front in Northern Nebraska.  The EML aloft will play a major factor in whether storms fire during the daytime hours.  Thinking the upslope event will start before the possible show in N. Nebraska.  We will position near Grand Island and decide whether to continue west or to head north from there.  Hopefully Mesoanalysis will clear things up for us before we get to Grand Island.

Steve

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Calling off the chase for tomorrow 5-19-12

Well I decided not to chase tomorrow.  A lot of negatives with this setup.  Looks like storms will form near dark and quickly congeal into a line.  There is very little moistureyo work with per the 12z NAM which has been fairly consistent with this.  Also, Td spreads will be at orabove 20 degrees which should greatly limit the tornado potential.  GFS is hinting at a much better setup startnext mid next week.  So I instead will be attending the haven’t ion in Dayton Ohio with Jesse Risely.

 

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Possible Chase this Friday/Saturday 5-18-12

Looks like a possible chase this coming weekend.  Upper air support looks a bit weaker than I would like.  The GFS has the better upper air support lagging further behind in Colorado and has it ejecting into the northern plains much stronger on Saturday.  Td spreads look a little high though so this may limit the tornado potential.  The area of interest appears to be NW Kansas, NE Colorado and SW Nebraska or otherwise known as CONEY (Thanks Vern C.)  Still several negatives with this system obviously but it is May and Im available to chase.  With May being so slow, I will take some nice structure shots at this point.

Stay tuned as further model runs hopefully improve the possible chase opps.

Steve P

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Impromptu Chase in Progress

Live Stream is up on Tornadic storm near Olathe, KS

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730 PM Update

Well I’m giving up.  Cap wins today, H7 temps way too hot

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steve polley storm chaser