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4 PM Update

As I thought from last nights 0z NAM forecast soundings, the cap is winning so far.  Per the Storm Prediction Centers latest meso, initiation appears to be holding off till around 0z or 7pm Central Time.  Currently in Randolph, NE wait for things to go bang.  If storms can get going, the environment is ripe for super cells including tornadoes.

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2 PM Update

Currently sitting in Sioux City, IA and watching CU going up all around us.  Going to look over somE data and may head a bit further west shortly.

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Heading to SD/NE

Currently heading to the target area west of Yankton, SD. We will be watching things as we head north, going to be a WF play today.  Due totechnical issues there will be no livestreaming today.

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South Dakota/Nebraska Chase Tomorrow 5-5-12

The setup definitively is not perfect, one of the major problems after looking at the 0z NAM is that there is a capping inversion at around 850mb.  Does appear to break out precip though by 0z.  The 0-1 SRH looks to be around 300 #sdwx.  CAPE looks to be around 4-5k.  The area as of now that I am targeting as of now is around Winner, SD of course this will change as the event unfolds.  I will be updating throughout the day tomorrow.  I do believe  that this will be a late show as the cap seems to be very strong but the NAM does breakout convection around 0z.  This will be a high risk, high reward type of event with the chance of a bust being a real possibility as well. Since this is a weekend chase, we will be taking the chance on the event.   #tornadoes

Sounding for South Central S. Dakota 5-6-12 0z

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Chasing Tomorrow 5-5-12

We will be chasing tomorrow in Nebraska, will update as the 0z data comes in tonight #newx #tornadoes

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steve polley storm chaser