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Weekend FCST: April 17-18 Pleasant Weekend Ahead


A very pleasant weekend is in store for the local area!  The frontal system responsible for the showers and a few embedded thunerstorms overnight has moved into southeastern Missouri this afternoon.  Rainfall amounts averaged around .50 inch across the area.  Here is a look at the current composite reflectivity radar for the midwest:

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FCST: April 15-16 Showers and T-Storms

A low pressure system over central Canada and a trailing cold front will be our weather maker beginning Thursday afternoon and heading into Friday.  A high pressure system, anchored over the southeastern seaboard has been responsible for our pleasant and tranquil weather the last week.  Here is a look at the surface map at 0Z/16:

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out ahead of the front in earnest overnight Thursday and into Friday before the front clears northern Missouri.  Rainfall amounts could be on the moderate to heavy side as the front will be slow to clear the local area. This is due in part to the slow movement of the surface front and the 250mb/500mb winds being parallel to the front.  These setups often yield training of showers and thunderstorms over the same areas producing minor flooding issues.

The parameters will not support widespread severe thunderstorms however, some hail reports are not out of the question especially over NE KS and NW MO. CAPE values at 0Z/16 are forecasted to be in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over the aforementioned area.  Helicity and EHI values are negligible over the area.   Overall shear parameters are very weak with bulk shear in the 20 to 30 kt range which will preclude the development of severe thunderstorms for the local area.

Surface temps are forecasted to be in the low to mid 70’s with Dp’s in the low to mid 50’s.  Better moisture will be confined to the TX/OK/AR area due to surface ridging keeping the Gulf Moisture at bay.  Temperatures behind the front will be more seasonal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60’s and overnight lows in the 40’s. ~ CS

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Thunderstorms on Sunday across northern MO??? Maybe!

A warm weekend is in store for the central part of the country with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70’s for northern MO on Saturday and low to mid 70’s on Sunday. 

Current Surface and Pressure Map

An area of low pressure is located over central Canada and central MN with a weak cold front trailing back into the central US.  Another area of low pressure is in NE New Mexico.  This area of low pressure is forecasted to move into the OK and TX panhandles and provide an outside chance of thunerstorms.  However, a stout EML is in the area and should preclude severe thunderstorm development across the aforementioned area. 

The cold front to our NW is forecasted to stall near the local area by 12Z/11. 

Forecasted Surface Map 12Z/11
Forecasted surface map 0Z/12
Tonight, winds are out of the SW at 5 to 10 mph, beginning to bring warm moist air into the region. Currently in Cameron we are sitting at 55F with a dewpoint of 38F. Winds are forecasted to increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the day on Saturday, which will continue to bring the warm and moist air into the region.
Warm, moist air is forecasted south of the front with dry, cool air to the north of the front.  Dewpoitns are forecasted to be in the mid 50’s to lower 60’s on the south side of the front and only in the 30’s north of the front.  Currently, dewpoints are in the upper 30’s across northern Missouri, so we have a ways to go! 
Current Surface DewPoints

CAPE values are forecast to be in the 300 to 500 J/kg range very close to the local area.
This clash of air masses, with marginal CAPE values, may be just enough to set off some marginally severe thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon near the local area.  The primary hazards would be marginally severe hail in the more robust thunderstorm updrafts. ~ CS
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Quiet weather, after a very active pattern in the central US!

After Tuesday’s severe squall line, we have some quieter and cooler weather in store for the central part of the country. Temperatures are in the lower 60’s today and are expected to rebound into the low to mid 70’s over the weekend with bright sunny skies! Ahh, springtime in the midwest!

Storm chasers will have a difficult time finding storms to chase in tornado alley prior to the early part of next week. There is an outside chance of severe thunderstorms Saturday in the TX and Oklahoma panhandles, but MesoExtreme forecasters feel the EML (CAP) is going to win out and preclude any severe thunderstorm development.

This is bad news for Trevor Black, storm chaser, for http://www.stormchaselive.com/ . Trevor and some of his family members had set this weekend aside earlier in the year as a “possible” chasecastion or at least an early spring chase venture. Unfortunately, it does not look to pan out. Here is an excerpt from some of the discussion Trevor and I had this morning about activity in the southern plains:

“There is a short wave ejecting out of central New Mexico and entering the TX panhandle on Saturday night (0Z/11) with a DL in the NW OK panhandle and the western TX panhandle…see only minor height falls with this S/W in the aforementioned areas….surface temps are approaching the upper 80’s with Dp’s in the mid to upper 60’s in the warm sector with a surface THETA-E ridge nosing in just east of the DL at 0Z/11 on the NAM and GFS….veering winds with limited shear though with a 15kt SLY surface and 20kt SWLY 700mb ….not to mention a very warm EML in the area (700mb temps are 8C to 10C with CINH values in the -100+ range)….a strongly capped environment with only minimal shear and NO instability with CAPE values below 500 J/kg (NAM does increase the CAPE a bit, but it breaks no precip out in the area at 0Z/11)….if you were looking for a drive…NW OK and NW TX (NAM shows a DL bulge here) would be the ONLY potential play if the CAP broke…..most likely a sun tan though so bring the high SPF formula…but if a storm went up it would ONLY be marginally severe with hail and gusty winds…the tornado threat is non-existent in the CONUS with the existing wind fields…..just my thoughts ATTM…..” *SIGH*

We will turn our attention to a trough moving on shore late in the weekend which may affect our weather during the early part of next week. The next chase appears in the Mon-Tues time frame based on current model progs!

In the meantime, check out the NEW and UPDATED http://www.stormchaselive.com/ website. Jason and Chris have been working around the clock getting the site prepared for the 2010 chase season! I might add that they have done an extraordinary job with the site and many positive comments have been made about it!!!!!! In addition, the site has recently partnered with spotternetwork.org and the StormChaseLive chase teams are listed on their site. More work on the site is forthcoming so stay tuned!!!!

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StormChaseLive and MesoExtremeMedia Part of The Weather Channels Tornado Week!

Storm Chaser Steve Polley was featured on The Weather Channels “Storm Stories” during Tornado Week April 5-9, 2010. During the interview, Steve discusses the benign severe weather day of June 10, 2009, the day he intercepted a tornado near Schell City, MO!

Steve is an active chaser with http://www.stormchaselive.com/, a severe weather forecaster for MesoExtreme,  http://www.mesoextreme.blogspot.com/, and owner of MesoExtremeMedia a severe weather video and still photography company,  http://www.mesoextrememedia.com/ . 

Steve’s video segment can be viewed at this link: http://www.weather.com/outlook/videos/?subcatid=271#16970 .

Tune in the remainder of this week on TWC at 7 p.m. CDT for Tornado Week on Storm Stories!!!

StormChaseLive.com Storm Chaser Steve Polley
in Western Nebraska in June 2009.
 
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